Forecasting Essays - Time Series Analysis, Exponential Smoothing

Forecasting In my assignment I will forecast the third and the fourth quarter revenues of Consolidated Edison Company for the year 1996. The companys main fields are electricity, gas and steam supplying. In the case of every company it is important to forecast the future revenues to be able to calculate the companys expected profits. That is the situation in this case as well, so I must do my job as perfect as I can. I got the past eleven years data, from which I can analyse the whole situation and which I can use to predict for the future. To make the forecast more accurate I can use the actual quarterly revenues. Quarterly revenues for Consolidated Edison Company ($ million), 1985-1995 Year March 31. June 30. September 30. December 31. 1985 1441 1209 1526 1321 1986 1414 1187 1411 1185 1987 1284 1125 1493 1192 1988 1327 1102 1469 1213 1989 1387 1218 1575 1371 1990 1494 1263 1613 1369 1991 1479 1330 1720 1344 1992 1456 1280 1717 1480 1993 1586 1396 1800 1483 1994 1697 1392 1822 1461 1995 1669 1460 1880 1528 1996 1867 1540 Source:The Value Line Investment Survey (New York: Value Line, 1990, 1993, 1996) p.170. There are several different methods, which can be used by forecasters. For this case I will test the na?ve, the moving averages, the exponential smoothing, the double moving averages, the deseasonalisation, the linear regression and the exponential regression models. After having conducted the procedures, the forecasters task is to evaluate the models. This is not an easy task because there are a lot of measures, based on which the person has to decide. The measure coefficients test the difference between the observed and the forecasted values, which then used for comparison. These measures are as follows: MSE: This is the mean squared error, which sum and square all of the errors and take their average. MAD: This is the mean absolute deviation, which sum the absolute errors and take their averages. MAPE: This is the mean average percentage error, which shows the difference in percentages. As I mentioned, all of these measures test the errors, and when the values of measures are the smallest in a method, that method seems to be the most accurate one. Now, I will conduct the different methods one by one. The first technique is the naive approach. The essence of this approach is that it uses the value of the current period as the forecast for the next period. This model is rarely the best one because it does not take the seasonality and the economic changes into consideration.(Table I) The next method I have conducted is the moving averages. This technique uses several past time periods as the forecast for the next period. I averaged three and four quarters to get the possible best one, but it has turned up that the three quarter one has overestimated, while the four quarter one has underestimated the values a bit. From the graph we can see that the four quarter moving average method does not take the seasonality into consideration, therefor it calculates only average values.(Table 2) After the moving averages procedure I conducted the exponential smoothing method, which uses a weighted average of past time series values to get a smoothed forecast. This model decreases the effects of past data and this way creates more accurate forecasts for the future. I used three different weights; the value of 0.2 and the 0.4 and the 0.8. Among them the model weighted by 0.2 was the most accurate one.(Table 3) The double moving average model is an improved variation of the moving averages models. Although a better result was hoped from this technique I must say that the result was worse than the previous ones. It is seen in the graph that this method is continually overestimating. It can be related to the wrong model building. It would be interesting to test the four quarter one as well.(Table 4) It is said that usually the best procedure is the deseasonalisation technique, because this method splits the components of the time series up into parts and analysed separately. After, the components are rebuilt and the forecast is made.(Table 5) The regression models (linear and exponential) use the built in regression of Excel to forecast the values. The different types are needed because the values of data may be

How to Finish Writing a Book 8 Actionable Steps to Finish Your First Draft

How to Finish Writing a Book 8 Actionable Steps to Finish Your First Draft How to Finish Writing a Book: 8 Actionable Steps to Finish Your First Draft Do you struggle with actually finishing a full draft of your manuscript? Do you actually know how to finish writing a book?Trust me, it can be a lot harder than you think and Ill explain why belowIf youre someone who hops projects when you get bored or stuck, we have the solution to your common problem- and it might be different than you think. Here are our top tips to help you finish writing a book:Outline your bookSchedule writing timeBudget save for publicationBe realistic with your goalsGet accountability partnersMake finishing your book a part of your lifePower through to finish your bookAvoid burnoutWhy Many Aspiring Authors Dont Finish Writing a BookI think weve all been there beforeWe have fantastic story ideas or even writing prompts, are so motivated to sit down and write a book, but we end up hitting the midway point andstopping.So many writers out there fall short when actually finishing their books.Sure, you might be able to write a poem and finish that, or even complet e writing a short story or twobut manuscripts are different.But why?Theyre longer and take a lot more time and discipline to finish.Most writers are going through the process of writing and publishing a book blind. And without the right process (or help) in place, its easy to fall off the rails and end up with only half a manuscript shoved in a desk drawer somewhere collecting dust.Most writers fail to finish writing a book because they dont have a process to keep them accountable in order to finish.But thats where we come in.NOTE: If youre ready to actually FINISH your book, tune in to our FREE training to get it done. Dont let that amazing idea sit dormant for years and years, only to feel regret 5 years down the line. Get it done by starting TODAY.How many authors do you know who sit around and say, I wish I would have waited to start? Learn more about it hereHow to Finish Writing a BookObviously youre ready to commit- to take the leap and actually finish your book. Maybe youve s truggled for a few months or maybe youve been trying to finish your book for years. Either way, weve got the best tips to actually complete your manuscript.#1 OutlineThe best way to finish a project (and finish it quickly!) is to have a plan. A book’s plan is your outline. Now, not everyone is on board with book outlines. There are â€Å"plotters,† there are â€Å"pantsers,† and there are the in-betweeners (which we affectionately call â€Å"plotsers†).However, even writers who finish books regularly and claim they are vehemently against outlines are usually outlining.Whats the difference between pantsers and plotters?â€Å"Pantsers† tend to call their first draft something like a discovery draft, or draft zero, or, as Nora Roberts calls it, the piece of shit draft.Even though they say they don’t outline, this first draft is a type of outline. Even though Stephen King says, â€Å"Outlines are the last resource of bad fiction writers,† we know what he really means is, â€Å"My first draft is actually a type of outline, and that’s the method I’ve found that works for me, personally.†Ã¢â‚¬Å"Prose is architecture. It’s not interior design.† Ernest HemingwaySome people love every single detail planned before they begin writing, while others think outlines make their stories too formulaic. The good news is, there’s a type of outline for everyone! If there isn’t one already penned in existence, you can make. one. up. 😠®There are so many different kinds of outlines:Extremely detailed outlines with a sentence for every action in each sceneBasic bullet points of the ideas you want to cover, or â€Å"first draft† outlines where you plan your book by writing a version of itDraft zero, a pansted first draft, is one you can finish in roughly the same amount of time it takes you to plan and outline your bookYou don’t have to follow certain outline rules or g uidelinesyour outline is a tool for you and the way you work. So find a system that works best and utilize it!Pro Outlining Tip: If you’re more of a â€Å"pantser,† use what I call a â€Å"liquid outline.† Let it be flexible as your project progresses. For example, start with a bullet point outline of what you expect to happen, then as you write each chapter, go back and revise your outline when things change. This will keep you on track and organized, but it will also allow you the freedom and on-the-spot creativity of â€Å"pantsing† your book.#2 Schedule your writing timeA great way to stay productive is to set a writing schedule in order to develop a writing habit.Here are a few questions to ask yourself in order to finish writing your book:Which days and times will you write?How long will you write in each session?Will you hit a time limit each day, or do you want to reach a certain word count?Further than scheduling your writing, you can schedule t he entire publication process to keep your book on track through production and into marketing! Having a timeline for drafting, editing, beta rounds, cover, and interior design, book release, marketing, etc., will help you work more efficiently and coordinate the steps that require other people.For example, many cover designers require you to book months, or even years, in advance! Scheduling and planning will help you stay ahead of possible roadblocks.#3 Budget and saveSelf-publishing might be more expensive than you think it will be! If you haven’t done it yet, take some time to research possible costs of publishing a book.For example, do you want a cover designer? A professional editor? Special marketing? Determine out how much it will cost and how long you have to save, then set up a savings plan to be sure you can cover these costs.Heres a breakdown of potential costs you have to consider when writing your book:If you have no idea how to set up a savings plan, Jenna Mor eci has a great video on budgeting and savings basics!If you don’t take the time to budget for book production and save ahead of time, you may happen upon a charge you weren’t expecting and aren’t prepared to pay. Then your options are to halt production to save for it, go without, or take a loan.Saving ahead of time is much better than all three of those options, so do your research!If you want more information on the publishing expenses you can expect, check out the video below- and the biggest cost might be the most surprising. #4 Be realisticIn scheduling, budgeting, and saving, be realistic about your goals and timelines.If you convince yourself you have four hours of writing time each day to finish a draft in a month, but you have a full-time job and three kids? That’s probably not a realistic goal. Maybe you can only write for twenty minutes a day. Maybe you can only write on weekends. Maybe writing a few paragraphs during lunch breaks is your onl y option for now.Be honest, be logical, and set goals you have a chance of achieving. While you can always find ways to write faster in order to make the most of that writing time, you still have to set reasonable goals.Nothing is more demoralizing than never reaching your goals.#5 Consider finding a team to hold yourself accountableI have a critique group with two other writers who are also writing fantasy novels. Every Sunday, we exchange the chapter we wrote that week, as well as the other two writer’s chapters from the previous week with our critique comments.When utilizing a critique partner or group, I recommend the following:Find people with similar WIPsSet up a schedule for swapping chapters, stories, poems, scripts, etc.Keep open lines of communication!Having other people expect your routine updates, as well as having other people to discuss issues and setbacks, will help to keep you on track with a writing schedule.At Self-Publishing School, theres actually a Maste rmind Community each student gets to be a part of where accountability partners run rampant. All these writers are looking for others to help them finish writing their books.#6 Make your WIP a part of your lifeLet your book take up a lot of real estate in your mind, your home, and your daily life.As you grow your writing platform and market your book, talk about your work in progress. Tell your friends and family about it.The more people who know youre writing a book, the more theyll ask you about it.This hold you accountable to actually finish writing your book.You can even make a Youtube channel, like mine, in order to have more people familiar with you writing a book. (This is also a great strategy to market yourself as a writer)If you make a physical outline or a moodboard, hang it by your desk where you can see it. Set your main character’s profile sketch as your phone background.Make it where you can’t skip a writing day without thinking about it.This will keep your mind working toward solutions for your project every day.#7 Power through!Don’t let yourself get hung up on edits before your draft is finished. Don’t overthink itjust focus on getting through your first draft.Of course it won’t be perfect!But, like Nora Roberts said, â€Å"you can fix anything but a blank page.†You can’t edit nothing! Don’t slow down, keep your momentum, and pound out that first draft!The hardest part of writing a book is finishing the first draft. After that, its all downhill so just get it done!#8 Avoid burnoutWriting burnout is when you feel like your work is trash. You think you have nothing important to say. Maybe you think no one cares about what you’re writing or maybe youve fallen into a pit of writers block. Don’t fall into this hole!Your first instinct when confronted with writing burnout is usually to stop writing. Never stop writing. Maybe this WIP is sucking your joy, but realize that it is n’t you, and it isn’t your writingit’s the project.Try swapping to something a little easier, like a short story or a poem, but set a time to return to your book. Don’t let so much time slip away that you get too far away to return. Remind yourself of the reason to write a book in the first place.Ask yourself these questions if youre feeling writer burnout:Where does your inspiration come from?Who are you writing for?Why is it important to you?Write down your motivation and hang it somewhere you can see itDon’t let yourself get burned out before you can finish your project. Take a breather, but make a promise to yourself that you’ll get back to work and set a specific time to do so.Moral of the story: plan ahead and DON’T STOP UNTIL YOU’RE FINISHED!Are you ready to start- and finally finish- your book? Turn in to our free training to help you go from blank page to published author in as little as 90 days.Yes, how long it takes to write a book can be as little as three months with our methods!

Complexity theory in public management Research Paper

Complexity theory in public management - Research Paper Example Unfortunately, complexity theory has little been used in public management. In other social sciences, for example economics, evolutionary approach has widely been used instead of complexity theory. The question on whether complexity theory can increase our understanding of the phenomena of public management is intriguing. Weber (2008) says that the public sector has largely been ignored because of its stale and impractical ideas which are only based on the understanding of its existence. Public management has in the recent past crumbled and therefore, its time to replace its proliferation of frameworks, theories and concepts (Weber, 2008). Because of complexities in public management theories, public management has split into many sub-strands, like sociologists, political scientists, economists, and management theorists, who are developing alternative theories that try to explain management in the public sector. Complexity theory and problem resolution Complexity theory helps to addr ess problems of decision making and service delivery in public management. ... Complexity theory has all potentials of addressing the challenges in public policy and management that practitioners face. They are also important in weaving many theoretical strands in management of public sectors into a seamless whole. Early works that have tried to connect public management with complexity theory related concepts wasted by great scholars like Douglas Kiel and Sam Overman among others (Weber, 2008). Public management policy has recognized limitations that they are prune to due to the complexity and diversity of human nature. Decision making is characterized by both practical and theoretical limitations due to rational; thinking and comprehensive protocols. Complexity theory provides the groundwork within which alternative ways of understanding these rationalist protocols and logistics can be recognized. According to Weber, complexity theories may be the only solution that will help increase theory’s coherence and re-invigoration of the discipline across many perspectives that bear these problems in public management. Complex adaptive system is particularly suggested as an essential way of understanding systems that provide an intellectual framework where fresh understanding of the systems of public management can be observed and sought. The multiplicity, non linear interactions and intensity of complexity theory seems to agree with complex adaptive theory. Though their outcomes are rarely fully predictable, they may not serve their purpose well in public management. Emergent order and self- organization concepts seem like characterizations that are reasonable. Effects of complexity theory on management practices in current systems Complexity theory gives the public sector a big room for improving the understanding of public management and

The Progressive Era and the Great Depression in the US Essay

The Progressive Era and the Great Depression in the US - Essay Example Aside from this, the automobile industry was also strengthened, and flights were also fueled. Currently, the Oil and Gas Extraction subsector in the United States has been employing citizens by exploring new sources of natural gas and petroleum and other industrial activities (Jaycox, 2005; United States Department of Labor, 2013). Women and the Right to Suffrage In August 18, 1920, the congress ratified the 19th amendment which allowed the women the right to suffrage. This was considered as a milestone that required a long line of write-ups, lectures, marches, and lobbying by the supporter of the women's suffrage. However, not all women in the country earned the right to vote simultaneously. The women in the Western states first earned the right to suffrage because they were treated similarly and with equal rights with men, which is why the amendment was openly accepted and enacted. Nonetheless, the eastern states had limited independence. Some states arrested women who are smoking or dining alone in a restaurant. The women in southern states were also given lesser independence if a woman works; her wages will be given directly to her husband. These unequal rights in the eastern and southern states which were stated in their laws were the reason why these states did not immediately adopted the amendment on giving equal rights for women to suffrage (Brill, 2010). Economy during the Progressive Era Years During the time of Roosevelt, the passage of the Hepburn Act in 1906 was done in the congress. The act changed many regulations, especially in the business sector. For the railroads, the act tried to eliminate the transportation and hauling of... In August 18, 1920, the congress ratified the 19th amendment which allowed the women the right to suffrage. This was considered as a milestone that required a long line of write-ups, lectures, marches, and lobbying by the supporter of the women's suffrage. However, not all women in the country earned the right to vote simultaneously. The women in the Western states first earned the right to suffrage because they were treated similarly and with equal rights with men, which is why the amendment was openly accepted and enacted. Nonetheless, the eastern states had limited independence. Some states arrested women who are smoking or dining alone in a restaurant. The women in southern states were also given lesser independence if a woman works; her wages will be given directly to her husband. These unequal rights in the eastern and southern states which were stated in their laws were the reason why these states did not immediately adopted the amendment on giving equal rights for women to su ffrage (Brill, 2010).During the time of Roosevelt, the passage of the Hepburn Act in 1906 was done in the congress. The act changed many regulations, especially in the business sector. For the railroads, the act tried to eliminate the transportation and hauling of products. Aside from this, the Act also lengthened the notice of changes in rates, from 10 days to 30 days. The most valuable part is that the act gave the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) to create rates which are just and reasonable.

The influence of business tycoons such as Andrew Carnegie, John D Research Paper

The influence of business tycoons such as Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller, Jay Gould, and J.P. Morgan on modern history, Economy, and American lifestyle - Research Paper Example Until today, the economy and the living standards of people in the country are better than other countries. Andrew Carnegie supported Booker T Washington by giving money to an institute called Tuskegee, which was founded by Washington. American history celebrates the live of Carnegie, which transformed from a person who never owned a dime to a person who lead financial empires of great power. Currently, the individuals in American still remember Carnegie and the way he influenced the lives of Americans and the economy of the country. The kind of corporate that he was dealing with is the steel industry. He started the industry in the year 1865 and when he died, he was a multimillionaire like the other tycoons. Before becoming rich, he was running errands for a telegraph office. After the time of relatively unrestrained capitalism, the tycoon in steel had made great development of a powerful financial system that some individuals enjoyed (Net Industries). The rapid economic development made by the tycoon laid a foundation for the modern economic growth of the United States. Together with other tycoons, many discoveries were made during their era. Still today businesspersons follow their paths by being single minded when pursing financial achievements and power (Net Industries). The tycoon played a great role in the creation of the modern America. Because of him and others like him, he made the country to be the wealthiest and a country with a lot of creativity as far as business is concerned. The man was very determined in raising the economy by making America to be a state that actively participates in the economy. This was not happening before the tycoons’ time (Net Industries). The tycoon actions in the past still affect the American, lifestyle today. As a pioneering philanthropist, he has had major influence of the lives of many individuals. Since he helped in upgrading the financial system of the state, individuals in America have

Climate Change And Its Impact On Ski Industry Tourism Essay

Climate Change And Its Impact On Ski Industry Tourism Essay This essay talks about the presence of climate change and its impact on ski industry which is dependent activity on weather conditions. Global warming has been considered as a mega risk and it has a tendency to be permanent and therefore it is extremely complicated to measure its outcomes. As Nicholls (2006) mentioned, climate change is nowadays strongly accepted by many worlds scientists and governments as an issue of tremendous alarm for the people worldwide. This essay considers different models of possible impacts of global warming on different parts of the world. Steyger and Mayers (2008) said that since the 1990s the likely dependence of snow tourism to climate change has received greater alertness in the media. Increasing number of authors focus on this matter as well as on the adaption strategies of ski resorts. This paper demonstrates that global warming is a problem which forced majority of ski resorts all over the world to respond to weather changes in order to survive. Essay talks about options that are available to ski resorts and brings on the discussion of their usage and their effectiveness. Ski resorts all over the world are likely to experience a loss of snow consistency and that is why supervision of ski regions has to be more conscious when it comes to future of snow conditions in their geography area. Global warmings impact on ski industry Models of projected outcomes of global warming Climate as well as the natural environment associated with weather change can likely to impact open-air leisure and tourism. Businesses linked to skiing industry are largely exposed to the projected impacts of global warming because skiing is an activity dependent on climate conditions. Bricknell and McManus (2006) considered that it is one of the first and the most visibly impacted industries by the risk of global warming worldwide. Folland et al (2001) as mentioned in Moen and Fredman (2007) stated that annual snow cover level in the northern hemisphere has decreased by approximately 10% since 1966 and also that previous decade was wetter and warmer compared to the prior 30-year period in whole Europe. Global warming has already affected and will most probably carry on with affecting physical and natural systems all over the world. As Moen and Fredman (2007) refered to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), the expected effects of global warming include a proposed boost of globally averaged outside temperature by 1.4 to 5.8Â °C between years 1990 and 2100 which would also possibly lead to sea level rise of 0.88m globally. ZAMG (2007) as cited in Breilings and Charamza (1999) found out that because of global warming the line of usual snowfall steadiness will raise by about 150 m of altitude per 1Â °C of warming. For better picture, low attitude ski resorts are those below 1800-2000 m and thus, the majority of ski resorts in the world. Not to mention Breilings and Charamzas (1999) estimation that a 1Â °C rise in average temperatures with winter drought may reduce the duration of snow cover by 50% at altitudes in range of 1400 1600 m. For example, Moen and Fredman (2007) estimated that no more than 63% of the entire Swiss ski regions will be snow consistent once a temperature raise by 2Â °C, not to mention the impact in the worst case and thus, in increase of temperature by 5.8Â °C, taking to account IPCCs model. If we link these few findi ngs together, we may conclude that in the worst circumstances, the natural snow dependability will rise by 870m of altitude by year 2100 which would mean that ski resorts of altitude about 2000m may end up with as much snow as altitudes in regions about 1000m today. Larsson (2003) concentrated his research on climate change adaption in Canada and the findings are very similar to of those in Europe. He used model of McCarthys (2001) research which estimated that global warming in Arctic land areas may become theatrical by year 2080. Summer temperatures would increase by 4.0-7.5Â °C, winter temperatures by 2.5-14.0Â °C. These numbers are even more. If these predictions are about to be fulfilled, it would lead to melting of permafrost, leading to soils with condensed bearing capacity in ice rich areas and active regions of irregular permafrost. Additionally as he found out, the global warming effects may decrease periods of extreme cold and on other hand increase frequency of extreme heat in North America. Growing sea levels and danger of rainstorm course, and thus danger of coastal flooding, variations in timing, regularity and severity of flooding linked to rainstorms are likely to become a reality. Moen and Fredman (2007) mentioned that according to Mendelsohn and Markowski (1999), global warming would most likely have an effect on outdoor leisure in three ways in the future. These include accessibility of leisure possibilities throughout longer summer seasons and shorter winter seasons. The comfort in general, satisfaction of leisure activities and the quality of the leisure experience. These kind of changes will generate winners as well as losers as diverse sorts of outside recreation activities involve dissimilar climatic conditions. These outcomes are though generalisations that may be applicable at collective level, whilst it would expect large district and neighbouring variations between different tourism activities. All of the above findings are alarming for winter tourism destinations and therefore managements of ski areas have to be very aware of possible impact of climate change on their ski spots as the snow is fundamental aspect of ski tourism. Snow conditions as a key factor Winter tourism is in many ways reliant on natural features such as terrain, elevation or vertical fall. On other hand, even more significant features are weather conditions, and thus temperatures, airstream and snowfall. With decrease in snow cover, whatever the terrain or vertical fall may be, it is almost impossible to develop any ski opportunities. More authors agreed that snow cover is a key variable for consumers to decide where to ski. Suggestions that impacts on global warming on winter tourism can be significant are apparent from research from different parts of the world. For example, Fukushima et al (2002) as expressed in Moen and Fredman (2007) formed the interactions connecting air warmth, rainfall, snow intensity and the amount of skiers at seven different ski resorts in Japan. They found out that the number of skiers decreased by 30% when temperature increased by 3-C. Godfrey (1999) found out that one of the most important aspects influencing destination choices of Engl ish skiers going to Canada is snow conditions. These findings strengthen an argument that snow conditions and snow cover may be regarded as the most important factor for any ski resort. As discussed and illustrated before, the phenomenon of global warming may, and most likely will have a huge impact on snow conditions in mountains and ski areas and thus it will also have significant influence on businesses of new as well as matured ski destinations. Majority of them started to feel impacts of global warming and they are trying to find solutions in order to respond to weather changes so they have better chance to survive and keep their businesses alive. The question is, is all it possible even without not enough natural snowfall? Adaption by ski industry Artificial snow-making Steiger and Mayer (2008) concentrated their research on Austrias and Swisss ski industry and stated that technically created snow is the most used alteration approach for unusually hot winter seasons. Nicholls (2006) who researched climate change and its impact on outdoor tourism in Europe said that key technological alteration to snow absence is the implementation of artificial snow-making facilities. Moen and Fredman (2007) considered that the most general adaptation to snow-deficient winters in Sweden is also artificial snow-making. The practice of snowmaking is increasingly characteristic for the Australian ski industry too (Bricknell and McManus, 2006). Snowmaking may be used not only to influence ski season durations but also to reduce snow changeability throughout the season. This is viewed as an insurance policy for overcoming the unreliability of seasons and dealing with the potential impacts of climate change. Snowmaking could be considered short to medium-term adaptation a pproach, not just for low altitude ski destinations but as well as for financially strong year-round resorts at higher altitudes (Nicholls, 2006). For instance, in Austria almost 60% of the ski areas are covered by artificial snow-making facilities (FSO, 2007 in Steyger and Mayer, 2008). But the distribution of snow-making cannot be related to global warming as trends in tourism, status, and competitive advantage are crucial features. Steiger and Mayer (2008) said that ski resorts are forced to build up snow-making capabilities with cost for their financial strength as warm winters are becoming more common than in the past. However the possible assistance of this machinery to the practicability of winter tourism destinations have yet to be formed by researchers as the significant expenditures are linked with this measure. For instance, approximately 27% of ski resorts in Switzerland have a reduced cash stream already and most do not seem to be viable without help (Seilbahnen Schweiz 2006 in Steiger and Mayer, 2008). Elsasser and Burki (2002) and Scott et al. (2003) as described in Nicholls (2006), stated that snowmaking ameniti es are costly to assemble and preserve, and need significant amounts of water and power to work. For that reason, many of the small and middle range ski resorts would not have enough money for the implementation of such technology. Usage of snow-making technology In preparation for the skiing season of 2006-2007 the Austrias Tyrolean ski industry invested EUR 55 million in snowmaking, with EUR 270 million in overall investments even though, the past winter seasons had brought sufficient snowfall yet at lower elevations (Tiroler Tageszeitung 2006 as illustrated in Steyger and Mayers, 2008). This points out that while the operators observe climate circumstances as regularly too blurred and uncertain, they are well aware of global warming and are searching for adaptation strategies. Also, medium-term investment strategies are not tailored, as there is a lot of confidence in the improvement capacities of snowmaking machinery with a clear perceivable hole between weather change and economic investment phases (Mayer et al 2007 in Steiger and Mayer, 2008). As they mentioned, while the poor winter seasons at the end of the 1980s sparked artificial snowmaking in Tyrol, additional distribution was not related to weather unpredictability and global warm ing scenarios. On other hand, there is tendency to supply even naturally snow consistent ski resorts in high altitude areas higher than 2000m or in even 2500m with snow-making amenities. These elevations may be regarded as naturally snow consistent even in pessimistic global warming scenarios. As they said, snow-making amenities can be also used as promotion instrument to be a magnet for tourists, to build reputation and to maintain prices higher than it would generally be. These resources could perhaps be used in more sustainable way than just unnecessary usage of water wealth and other detriments of snow guns. Snow-making guns are not necessarily used in order just to make ski slopes usable for longer period of time. Main enthusiasm for the unique diffusion of snowmakers are that snowmaking should secure tourist capacity consumption, cable car companies revenues, and images of resorts in which domestic as well as international ski rivalry go on. Furthermore, it ought to guarantee broad environment for teaching and exercising of winter sports. How is global warming related to diffusion of snow-making facilities? Austrias case is different as there are many high-altitude ski resorts but Bricknell and McManus (2006) interviewed CEOs of three different ski resorts in Australia on this issue. CEOs assured that snowmaking technology may help to negate projected climate change impacts. The CEO of one resort suggested that, under global warming, snowmaking conditions may be unaffected or even improved because drier colder nights are good for snow-making which would assist the long term viability of the industry. The CEO of second resort noted that snowmaking is a necessary investment regardless of the potential impacts of climate change due to current consumer demands on the industry. CEO of third resort however, argued that global warming could have significant impact on artificial snow-making as this technology still depends on climate conditions and thus it still would not necessarily overcome the issue. Global warming and artificial snow-making Global warming may influence snowmaking in few ways. Decrease in natural snowfall would require more snowmaking; increase in average temperatures would decrease the length and amount of possibilities and boost the expenses of making snow; and variations in rainfall may distress the water supply for snowmaking (Scott et al., 2006 in Moen and Fredman, 2007). Analyses in North America have exposed that artificial snowmaking can significantly lessen the pessimistic outcomes of climate change but only if the temperature stays adequately low (Scott, 2006; Scott et al., 2006 in Moen and Fredman, 2007). Nicholls (2006) stated that artificial snow-making needs certain climatic surroundings, as for example minimum temperatures to be met and hence, this system may in several circumstances be prohibited beside the increase in warmth related to the global warming. The most important thing about snow-making is that snow guns and their usage are limited by weather conditions (Steiger and Mayer, 2008). High-quality snow can be accomplished with snow creation starting below -6Â °C at average humidity. On top of that, snowmaking conditions are prejudiced by warmth and wetness; if the air is wetter, lower temperatures are required. With recent snowmaking tools snow can be produced below -5Â °C. Fliris (1974) weather tables as expressed in Steiger and Mayer (2008) demonstrate a strong connection between -2Â °C daily average temperature and -6Â °C daily lowest temperature (Nicholls, 2006). Days reaching the threshold of -2Â °C daily average temperature are defined as prospective snowmaking days with best snowmaking conditions. Additionally, snowmaking is only considered realistic if it can poise out the loss during snowmelt. Therefore for majority of low-altitude ski resorts this strategy does not patch up the issue of global warming for long term and they have to start to look for other strategic options in order to overcome the problems of peak season shortness and falling visitor numbers as a result of climate change. Moen and Fredman (2007) adopted from Burki et al (2003) some other adaption strategies ski resorts may consider. Apart from snow-making, resorts could concentrate on different activities in order to fulfil consumer requirements and to survive on competitive business market. Slope development and operational practices At active ski areas, slope expansion alterations consist of: slope contouring, landscaping, and the defence of glaciers. Contouring or flatting ski slopes could be grooming slopes in the summer season to eliminate rocks or shrub vegetation, to reduce the snow deepness needed to operate and represent a cost saving approach for snowmaking (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Land contouring can also be used to capture snowmelt and top up snowmaking tanks during the winter. Strategic placing and planting of tree cover can capture moving snow and to some extent gloom ski slopes, which would reduce snowmelt and snowmaking needs. Additionally to the adjustment of already operating skiable environment, the expansion of new skiable terrain in climatically privileged sites is generally cited as an alteration to climate change. The development of north facing slopes, which retain snowpack longer, is one strategy too. As Scott and McBoyle (2007) realised, more authors agreed that expansion of ski areas i nto higher elevations, with generally more reliable snow cover, where a longer ski season is possible, seems to be one of the key climate change adaptation strategies considered by ski area operators in the European Alps. Thirty six ski areas in Austria were awaiting authorisation to develop their operations into higher elevations in 2002- 2003. Wolfsegger et al. () as illustrated in Scott and McBoyle (2007) said that expanding to higher elevations was the third most favourite global warming adaptation choice by Austrian ski area managers, after snowmaking and sharing snowmaking costs with the accommodation industry. Nicholls (2006) also agreed that strategy of development of higher altitude ski resorts is option that tends to be of favour for existing ski resorts. Large ski corporations over smaller, family-owned businesses tend to use this strategy. Although, such improvements would present a host of ecological and safety concerns which the industry would need to deal with in order to uphold the industry in a viable approach. These comprise bigger pressure from new production as well as improved waste creation. Also due to mountain terrain or height this strategy is in many cases impossible. Other option is to cooperate or expand into areas with more reliable snow which may on other hand diversify income structure of resorts. Scott and McBoyle (2007) said that high elevation mountain environments are particularly sensitive to disturbance and opposition from the public and environmental groups may pose a significant constraint on this adaptation strategy in some locations. Marketing incentives and new product developments Bricknell and McManus (2006) suggested that many resorts use strategy of flexible ticket pricing policy and thus reducing ticket prices in order to attract more skiers. Scott and McBoyle (2007) mentioned that ski companies have already begun to experiment with incentives or guarantees to overcome skiers reluctance to book a ski holiday because of uncertain snow conditions. In the winter of 1999-2000, for example, the American Skiing Company promised visitors to its six New England region ski resorts a 25% reduction on their next vacation if the ski area failed to open 70% of their ski runs during the Christmas-New Year holiday period. Warm temperatures that season forced three of the six resorts to pay customers rebates (Keates, 2000 in Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Another strategy could be to develop non-snow related activities in winter or to become all season destination as more choices could attract more tourists and it could bring other benefits. All year round tourism could be developed by providing climate independent tourism such as conference or educational tourism. Nicholls (2006) mentioned that the building of conference amenities combined with the contribution of a broad variety of outside leisure activities during the seasons may provide resorts with a balanced, constant source of revenue that is less dependent on weather conditions. On other hand, the expansion of such substitutes needs an primary lay out of funds which may go beyond the capabilities of smaller ski businesses. Over the past three decades, many ski areas in North America have diversified their operations beyond traditional ski activities to include the provision of skiing and snowboarding lessons, accommodation and retail sales (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). The Economist (1998) referred to the alteration of major ski resorts in North America from ski areas to winter theme parks, as the Disneyfication of the winter sports industry (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Non-skiers represent an important market at ski resorts. Williams and Dossa (1990) estimated that 20-30% of visitors to ski resorts in Canada did not ski during their visit (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). They also pointed out that in season 1974-75, lift tickets stood for almost 80% of profits for the usual ski area in the US. Nowadays, lift tickets stand for not even than half the profits, as other activities have risen in significance. Therefore to diversify the market and also to decrease the pressure of demand on ski lifts, this strategy see ms to be very supportive for existing ski resorts with capabilities to do so. Many ski resorts have made substantial investments to provide alternate activities for non-skiing visitors. For example snowmobiling, skating, dog sled-rides, indoor pools, health and wellness spas, fitness centres, squash and tennis, games rooms, restaurants, retail stores and many others. Moen and Fredman (2007) agreed, developing alternatives to skiing during winter is well recognised strategy to overcome falling visitor numbers into ski areas; however he pointed out, that it is also problematic as many of these alternatives are reliant on snow conditions or ice-covered lakes and thus dependant on climate conditions. All year round tourism The most promising strategy in order to completely overcome the problems of global warming may be to develop all-year round tourism. Moreover, offset pessimistic financial effects as of global warming, such a strategy would as well have optimistic public effects on conventional winter destinations as seasonal dissimilarity in employment prospects are bridged over. A number of ski resorts have further diversified their business operations to become four season resorts, offering non-winter activities such as golf, boating and white-water rafting, mountain biking, paragliding, horseback riding and other business lines. At many larger resorts, real estate construction and management has also become a very important source of revenue. On other hand, as Bricknell and McManus (2006) stated, the development of summer tourism needs long term preparation in order for them to develop appreciation in this market. The resorts will have to contend with each other and with summer destinations such as coastal locations, which would be in many cases very tough, especially where coastal summer tourism takes place. The expansion of tourism into the summer season in sequence to support or to swap snow tourism may also direct to environmental conflicts. Activities that resorts may want to promote, such as bike riding and horse riding, could unintentionally leak out into regions of preservation where they are forbidden. These kinds of activities are also known to worsen environmental issues, such as erosion and the spread of exotic species. If these forms of tourism increase in popularity, the carrying capacity for these mountain destinations must be re-evaluated to encompass their potential impacts. Role of public sector The public good characteristic of climate change creates complicated challenge for financial and political organizations. The lack of an unchanged weather is not connected to growing prices and is not necessarily measured to the top valued consumers. To maintain well-organized policies, inputs from financial estimations of global warming impacts are essential. Such financially viable measures consist of direct economic impacts to the economy as well as benefits to the contributors. For instance, Scott et al. (2002) as described in Scott and McBoyle (2007) used spending records to present approximation of the possible economic impacts from g oobal warming on skiing in Canada, whilst Richardson and Loomis (2005) calculated the effects of climate on motivation to pay to visit Rocky Mountain National Park. Many authors put some efforts to place an economic value on global warming impacts to tourism and outside leisure. For example, as Scott and McBoyle (2007) said, Meier (1998) approxima ted the cost of global warming for the 4 season tourism in Switzerland at USD 1.1 1.4 billion by the year 2050. Scott and McBoyle (2007) said that better weather forecasting would make available an enhanced foundation for risk assessments and tactical business choices, as well as the timing of seasonal openings or when to begin artificial snowmaking. Negotiations with ski operators in eastern North America propose that the industry does not presently use seasonal forecasts in their operational decision-making and substantive enhancements in forecasting accurateness would be necessary before these products would achieve a level of realistic value for the ski industry. Some ski operators yet think about five to seven days forecasts as too untrustworthy for operational decision-making and applied forecasts from different countries or classified services instead of governmental forecasts (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Announcements to the community through the media could be a further aspect of forecasting that could be improved in some areas. Ski operators occasionally have adversarial interaction wi th a number of neighbouring media for the reason that of what they recognise as inaccurate exposure of weather conditions and forecasts that they disagree cost them business (King, 2005 in Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Government support to the ski industry has taken place in the variety of discounted energy costs, long-standing leases of communal lands and infrastructure fundings, but the industry has not gained from the kinds of backing programs offered to other climate-sensitive trade sectors such as for example, sponsor harvest insurance for the agriculture sector. In the future, skiing based tourism economic losses consequential from unpleasant climate circumstances may be adequate for government concern and support in some cases. Government participation in the ski industrys prospect could perhaps take a number of forms. Direct involvement could come throughout financial assistance, cover support or marketing proposals. Ultimately, government policies linked to land and water use, and energy and revenue spending could impact skiing operations positively. Government financial assistance for snowmaking was greatly supported by Austrian ski area managers, whilst government assistance for financial losses because of poor winters was only to some extent supported (Wolfsegger et al, 2005 as demonstrated in Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Conclusion This essay discussed the problem of global warming and its projected impacts on ski industry all over the world. It demonstrated that climate change is broadly accepted as a mega risk, particularly for businesses dependant on weather conditions. Numerous ski resorts, especially those that are established at lower elevations could face serious problems if climate change forecasts are about to be accurate in the future. Among limited supply of downhill ski resorts, coupled with an existing high demand for the activity, it would possibly lead to yet other remarkable increase in prices and environmental pressures. Ski resorts have several strategy options to consider when it comes to problem of not sufficient snow cover in their geography area. Some tend to use artificial snow-making facilities, some aim to diversify their business portfolio by offering a new products and developments of new tourism attractions. The most promising strategy to overcome global warming problem, as regarded by few authors, was to become an all-year round tourism destination. However, all of these adaption strategies tend to go hand in hand with the issue of sustainability which should be taken more seriously as all developments take place in extremely sensitive environments. The essay demonstrated that adaption strategies are increasingly used already by ski resorts in many parts of the world and that sometimes these are not even related to global warming. The most commonly used adaption strategies are not without ecological and financial costs. Water usage from natural water bodies can lesser water intensities and influence fishing harmfully. Power needs are high as well and inversely linked to warmth, and will thus sustain higher expenditure the warmer the temperatures get. By means of this type of disorder of demand to ski regions with higher altitude, ecological loads upon the nearby environments would be enlarged. This paper only fairly points out issues that come along with new developments and expansions of ski regions and these should be further discussed and analysed.

The Slums :: essays research papers

  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Being raised in the slums of New York City there were not many role models for me to take after. At seventeen years old, I dropped out of school to pursue my only chance of success; long distance running. My dream would be to win the marathon that will be held in Chicago next month. If I win this race, I will receive $50,000 and hopefully a contract with Nike. There is only one problem that I face; there are a few women that are faster than I am. I am in constant training, and I have placed amongst the top ten women in the Boston Marathon, but I have never won a major race. How am I going to win when there are other people that can out run me?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  While I was talking to one of my friends, who happens to be an athletic trainer, I told her of my worries. She informed me that there is a new experimental drug that can help to improve my endurance by preventing the build up of lactic acid in my muscles, and she had access to these pills. The drug has not yet been tested on humans, yet when animals were given the drug they had no series side effects. My friend offered me a one months sampling of the drug in return for $5000 if I win the race and nothing if I loose. She swore to me that it is not on the list of drugs that are banned and it will not show up on a blood test. What should I do?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The main issue that I ask myself is whether or not I should take the drugs. All of my life I have dreamed of being an Olympic runner and if I take these pills I may get my chance. These pills can help build up my muscles and endurance which will give me a better chance of taking home the gold. If these pills do work than I will be able to take the $50,000 I win and move myself out of this hole I am living in. If I am in a better environment, I may want to do something with myself; perhaps I could get my GED and take college courses. If I take these pills, I could possibly be the best runner there ever could be.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  On the contrary, I have also come up with the down sides of taking these pills.

That Fateful Day

That Fateful Day I remember that day, long ago from my childhood. It was warm the night before, nearly 80 degrees, so I had left my window open. The morning winds where rushing through my school work on the desk. Black and white squiggles on seven pieces of paper, every one of them part of an accumulation of the last two weeks of homework. I needed them to get any kind of decent grade in my first weeks of the fourth grade. â€Å"It’s Tuesday today dad. † I said tentatively to my father. He just stood there in the living room, not really looking at the television. I know† he said in reply without any hesitation. â€Å"Aren’t you usually at work on Tuesdays? † For nearly a minute he just stood there, not saying a word. â€Å"Yes† he said, â€Å"I usually am at work on Tuesdays. But today is different. † Not knowing what he meant I said to him, â€Å"how? † I can’t remember much between that moment of me asking how, and him f inally stopping to try for an explanation. After what seemed an eternity, he finally un-muted the television. There in the center of the screen where two skyscrapers, one of them was burning and had smoke coming off of it.There was no one talking on the news, but they were replaying a clip of the tower before it was smoking. The exact moment when the plane hit the building, I knew what was happening. â€Å"Dad, do I still have to go to school today? † I asked in as solemnly as I could. â€Å"Yes, you still have to go to school. † The moment after my father said this the news woman began to talk again. On the screen there was an explosion of smoke and fire from the second building. I stopped hearing what the reporter said and just stared at the screen. I never thought that I would ever see anything like that in my life.This was the kind of stuff that happened in the movies, not in real life. â€Å"It’s 7:35† I remember someone saying, â€Å"the bus is lat e. † â€Å"No shit† my sister said. We were all waiting for the bus. My sister was in tenth grade, and she had a serious attitude. Normally she dressed in very tight, very revealing clothing. But not today. â€Å"I bet the bus never even comes† she said. One kid instantly said, â€Å"I hope so. † He didn’t know what happened, his family didn’t have cable. He thought everyone was being quite because we didn’t want to go to school just like him. If the bus doesn’t come by 7:45 I’m going home. † I remember all the other kids looking at him like he was the biggest idiot in the world. Some of them even had blank expressions on their face like they couldn’t understand what he was saying. Then it hit me, I remembered he didn’t get to watch the news in the morning. It took me 5 minutes before I started to talk. My throat was sore and felt like it weighed a hundred pounds. I didn’t know what to say, I ne ver did in the first place. I was only nine years old, and felt like I had lived far beyond my own self. I didn’t think the same as I use to.I didn’t want to play any games with the other kids while we waited for the bus. All I wanted was to sit and think. I wanted to think about all those people who were never going to be able to play their Nintendo’s again. About all of the people who would be crying because they lost their son, or their dad. It took all of 30 seconds to tell him what happened. The entire time everyone was looking at me wondering how I was able to talk about it at all especially the older kids. I was dreading the day already. I didn’t want to do any schoolwork while I knew that there were people dying somewhere far away.I didn’t want to go to recess like I usually do and slide down the big kid slide. I wanted to spend the day staring at the television screen just like my mom and dad were going to. I remember when the sun finally came up over the hill. The light was just right that morning. It was spilling through the oak trees onto the road, showing the hundreds of pin drops that were light on the black ground. The trees where flowing back and forth just right, making the sound that I loved so much the swish swish of leaves brushing against each other. If it were any other day I might have skipped school just to sit and read under the trees.But it wasn’t, so I didn’t. I got on the bus when it finally came just like I always should have on these nice days. We were finally at school. The teacher, not knowing what to do, turned on the television to the news. It was the same couple of minutes from the morning playing over and over. The towers had already fallen at this point, so there really wasn’t anything new to show. There was a staff meeting about an hour after school started. All of the students were sent out for recess. I was among the only students who didn’t go and play.I wal ked out of the school onto the playing field and just stood there staring at the grain elevator in the distance. From the perspective of the school the grain elevator looked almost exactly like one of the towers in the news. It was big and new, having been finished only 2 months before. It was tall and silvery, with little lines running up and down the entirety of the building. There were no windows all the way up until you got to the very top. There on top, was a huge window. It seemed to be bigger than my house way up there, but in reality it was only the size of a car, albeit a rather large car.Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiing. Recess was over. It was time to go in. All of the teachers were standing at attention near their perspective lines, waiting for something to happen. The students where chattering away like usual, waiting for the line to start moving. The principal was also outside, which was really weird. He never left his office. Mostly because he was busy, but also because he was some what afraid of talking to people. â€Å"Today, something terrible happened† the principal started. â€Å"Today, we witnessed something that none of us will ever forget. I stared straight into his eyes. They were dark brown, much like a rich wet soil after it rained. His eyes were watering, and had red lines throughout them. â€Å"I am sorry to inform you all that school today will be cut short. You will all be going home in 20 minutes. Those of you who are not able to go home will stay here at the school until the time that school regularly lets out. † The principal began to softly weep. â€Å"I, among others, will be here at the school until the regular hour of the schools letting out. If any of you wish to stay, then you are welcome to stay.But it is not required, and there will be no school lessons today. † The rest of the day seemed to go by slower and slower. I was never going to be able to know why the things that happened did happen. But I will know that I changed that day. For a long time after that I didn’t do anything for fun. I sat around a lot reading books I didn’t want to read. Eating food that I didn’t want to eat. I will never forget that day, because that day changed my life forever. After that day I was never able to look at the world again, and I was never able to think the same way. I remember 9/11.

What Does It Mean to Be Partisan

What Does It Mean to Be Partisan If youre a  partisan, it means you  adhere firmly to a political party, faction, idea or cause. You  likely live in a bright red or dark blue district or state. You  exhibit blind, prejudiced, and unreasoning allegiance and never speak ill of another member of your tribe, according to the standard Merriam-Webster definition. Being a partisan is  the opposite of being a swing voter or independent in politics. To put it bluntly, being a partisan isnt a good thing. So. How can you tell if youre a partisan? Here are five traits. 1. You Cant Talk Politics Without Getting Angry If you cant talk politics with people and still stay friends, youre a partisan. There are no two ways about it. If you cant talk politics without the conversation ending in bruised egos and hurt feelings, youre a partisan. If you cant see the other side of an issue and storm off abruptly from the dinner table, youre a partisan. Seek your inner peace. And understand this: Youre not right about everything. No one is. A synonym of partisan is ideologue. If youre an ideologue, it means youre an adherent to a rigid ideology. You dont like compromise.  And youre probably difficult to talk to.   2. You Vote the Straight Party Line If you show up to the voting booth without doing your homework and pull the lever for the straight-party ticket every time, youre a partisan. In fact, you match the definition of a partisan to the T: someone who exhibits blind, prejudiced, and unreasoning allegiance to a political party. If you dont want to be a partisan, heres a handy guide to everything you need to know to prepare for Election Day. Hint: Vote for the best candidate, not the party. 3. You Watch MSNBC or FOX News Theres nothing wrong with watching MSNBC or FOX News. But lets call it what it is: Youre choosing a source of news and information that supports your world view. If you lean lift, youre probably watching Rachel Maddow on MSNBC. And only MSNBC. If you tilt to the right, youre tuning in to Sean Hannity and FOX, and tuned out the rest. And, yes, if you do this youre a partisan. 4. You Chair a Political Party OK. To be fair, it is some peoples job to be partisan. And those people happen to be working in the political arena. That is, the parties themselves. If youre the chairman of the Republican National Committee or the GOP organization in your hometown, it is function to be a partisan. Thats why you have the job: to support your partys candidates and get them elected. Stated President Harry Truman: There was never a non-partisan in politics. A man cannot be a non-partisan and be effective in a political party. When hes in any party hes partisan. Hes got to be.   5. You Violate the Hatch Act Lets hope things dont get this bad. But if youre a government employee and youre found to have violated the federal Hatch Act, youre behaving as a partisan would behave. The Hatch Act of 1939  placed limits on the political activity of executive branch employees of the federal government, District of Columbia government, and some state and local employees who work in connection with federally funded programs. The law is intended to prohibit taxpayer-supported resources from being used in partisan campaigns; it is also intended to protect civil service employees from partisan pressures from political appointee managers. What does that mean? Well, lets say you work for an agency that is funding at least in part by the federal government. Under the Hatch Act you cant campaign for office or engage in any similar political behavior. Youve got to quit your job first. The federal government doesnt like allocating taxpayer money to agencies whose workers are behaving as partisans. In Defense of Parties and Partisanship Partisanship is the fundamental behavior that allows the two-party system to remain in place in the U.S. And the existence of parties, according to some astute political philosophers, are vital.   The philosopher and political economic John Stuart Mill, writing in On Liberty,  defended partisanship: A party of order or stability, and a party of progress or reform, are both necessary elements of a healthy state of political life.† The economist Graham Wallas also described parties favorably. Something is required simpler and more permanent, something which can be loved and trusted, and which can be recognized at successive elections as being the same thing that was loved and trusted before; and a party is such a thing. And  Moisà ©s Naà ­m, a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has written about the need for permanent organizations that earn political power and govern, that are forced to articulate disparate interests and viewpoints, that can recruit and develop future government leaders and that monitor those already in power. Nonpartisan, Bi-Partisan and Post-Partisan Definitions There are a couple of antonyms to the word partisan, and a relatively new term - post-partisan. What do they all mean? Nonpartisan: This  term describes the behavior of political figures who may belong to disparate factions and parties when they work together on nonpolitical issues, such as raising money for charity or helping with some civic issue in their home state. Bipartisan: This term describes the behavior of elected officials or citizens who otherwise disagree on policy issues and belong to disparate factions or parties when they work together toward a common political goal. Bipartisanship is rare on major issues in modern American politics.  Ã‚   Postpartisan: This term, which has come into wide use since President Barack Obamas election in 2008, describes the work of Republicans and Democrats to reach compromise on policy issue without abandoning ties to party or principals. Post-partisanship has its roots in President Thomas Jeffersons inaugural speech: Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists, he said. Obama, a Democrat running for president in 2008, promised to deliver such a postpartisan presidency by embracing Republicans and independents. His remarks resonated among the electorate. I think that there are a whole host of Republicans, and certainly independents, who have lost trust in their government, who dont believe anybody is listening to them, who are staggering under rising costs of health care, college education, dont believe what politicians say. And we can draw those independents and some Republicans into a working coalition, a working majority for change, Obama said. [Edited by Tom Murse]

Socrates Vs Gilgamesh essays

Socrates Vs Gilgamesh essays Socrates view of death in the Phaedo, Crito, and Apology is complex. His argument tries to prove that philosophers, of all people, are in the best state to die or will be in the best state after life because of the life they lead. Socrates views are sharply contrasted in The Epic of Gilgamesh. In fact, he would probably say that Gilgamesh had not lived the proper kind of life and his views of life, and death would lead to an unsettled existence in the afterlife. Socrates view of death, from his opinions on the act of dying, the state of the soul after death, and the fear of death, differs from that of The Epic of Gilgamesh to the extent that Socrates would refute every belief about death presented in The Epic of Gilgamesh. Socrates believes the act of dying to be a separation of the soul from the body. The soul is that which attains knowledge, and the body is that which experiences senses and emotions. In Gilgamesh there is no distinction between the body and soul. In the Phaedo, before Socrates drinks the poison Crito questions him as to how he would like to be buried to which Socrates replies, I do not convince Crito that I am this Socrates talking to you here and ordering all I say, but he thinks that I am the thing which he will soon be looking at as a corpse (Plato 153). By this Socrates means that after death what is left is merely the body and that the self is in the soul, which is no longer part of the body. Gilgamesh does not see things this way. After the death of Enkidu he tells the Man-Scorpion, I have wept for him day and night, I would not give up his body for burial, I thought my friend would come back because of my weeping (Gilgamesh 98). Gilgamesh has the view that the body st ill encompasses what is the self. Socrates would obviously say that it is nonsense to cling to the body of the dead as if it were the person because the soul has already depar ...

The Effectiveness of Government Subsidies for Goods Essay

The Effectiveness of Government Subsidies for Goods - Essay Example Subsidies involve payment of a certain portion of the cost of production to the firm with an objective of lowering the price of the good and thereby encouraging more consumption of the same (Lines, 2005). Subsidizing farm produce has the effect of ensuring there is enough food stuff and agriculture related products in the economy. However, critics of this economic policy argue that it breeds inefficiency and misallocation of scarce resources. Objective This research will be guided by the following objective: To establish the effectiveness of government subsidies on commodities in the product market. Literature Review Conradie (2009) notes that the poor condition of most of the marine capture fisheries in the world has raised increasing public concern of late. There is an imminent economic impact of diminished resources of fish on the regions’ economies in both developed and developing world economies, as well as near commercial extinction of stocks of fish that have placed gre at impact on ecosystems. The declaration which emanated in the World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting that was held in Doha emphasized on fisheries as a sector which needs maximum considerations in the next meeting of international negotiations on world trade. While there is a concern on overfishing, the main operational concern remains the role played by subsidies in stimulation of overfishing. If it comes out that the existence of subsidies stimulate overfishing, and then there is need to come up with a control mechanism or completely eliminate the policy. Subsidies often play two key extra roles; they do stimulate fishing and may possibly raise the national income of the country (Grosh, 2008). If the fishing level is below that level that can be safely sustained in the economy, then subsidies that enhance fishing could be useful. Lines (2005) cite that subsidies could interfere with the World Trade Organization control regulations if they lie within the realms of the Internationa l Agreements on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures by the WTO. The concept of subsidies is delicate in the sense that the government introduces them for valid purposes, like economic development strategies. However, with the passage of time, subsidies that were intended for useful purposes may become entrenched and start serving primarily the desires of industry participants who receive the subsidies. Elimination of these subsidies therefore becomes a political thing in the locality, with external implications. Haddad and Shepherd (2011) argue that the policy of subsidies is a complex one due to the fact that there exist no agreement as to what a subsidy actually is. There also exists no scientific way of measuring a subsidy and evaluating its impact to the intended economic sector. At the policy level, we do not have an agreement on when subsidies can be considered harmful or useful. Part of the reason behind the existence of an agreement is the fact that it is complicated to ev aluate the impacts of subsidies in the environment, economy, internal and international trade. Part of the reason for non- agreement on what the definition of a subsidy entails is because subsidies are nowadays being eliminated by governments, it could not be politically wise for a country admitting that a policy actually implies a subsidy. Clements (1998) explains a situation where South African government, through the Department of Agriculture,

The Effects of Psychoactive Substance Abuse on Young People Essay

The Effects of Psychoactive Substance Abuse on Young People - Essay Example Drug and alcohol abuse have adverse effects on the mental health of young people, impacting on their ability to learn and to progress normally in the education system. Cannabis, for example, impairs cognitive development, in particular associative processes and recall, and affects the intoxicated student's ability to concentrate (WHO 2006), while cocaine consumption results in a range of cerebral complications, ranging from hallucination to paranoia (Wikipedia 2006). Many studies reveal a correlation between drug/alcohol abuse and poor grades, as well as with other behavior that inhibit learning, making substance abuse one of the top problems in youth education today. Psychoactive substance abuse also has a negative impact on the body. Both cannabis and alcohol impair psychomotor performance and visual perception, resulting in many fatal motor vehicle accidents, as well as complications such as seizures, and lung, kidney and brain damage (WHO 2006).